Alliance don't have a chance of top 3 Shangai

Discussion in 'Competitive Chat' started by iLag, Jan 19, 2016.

  1. iLag

    iLag Well-Known Member

    Unless all the chinese teams go to sleep dont practice at all etc. But I highly doubt as pride is at stake since no chinese team has won a big tournament in forever.

    Even newbee is tryharding these days as they have been given a warning that if they dont pick it up they gonna get replaced.

    Not to mention much better teams that didnt care of starladder or choked or something and will attend the major.

    Teams easily better than Alliance by Major. OG, Ehome, VG, EG probably (dont doubt really PPD was even looking happy in his fucking loss vlog rofl they dont care its about end result for PPD which is big tourneys just look at what happened at Ti), and maybe even secret if misery picks up his game as secret should've 2-0 alliance but miserys brood was a non factor and it was a massive throw.

    Teams equal or slightly better (for sure) Virtus Pro, LGD (interchangeable with VG really), Secret if play like Starladder especially Misery but I doubt it.

    At the very least no way Alliance beat OG and Ehome, or secret/eg probably so gg their top 3 sorry to say fans

    I could even see Goblak's team especially upsetting Alliance as only teams they lost to at Minsk were CiS ones. This is why I also think VP is better. Liquid also have a chance but I doubt it that they will do better.
  2. Jolk

    Jolk Well-Known Member

    So you are saying that a team which beat all the others has zero chance at getting top 3?
    Okay maybe the other teams havnt adjusted to the patch yet as Alliance has, but still you cant say they have no chance.

    In my opinion it is unlikely that they win, but top 5 at least is quite possible.

    And I really hope for the chinese teams that they step their game up
  3. r0xo

    r0xo Well-Known Member

    I don't see someone like him being no-care about about $12 000 each difference in prizepool. That is just stupid anyway.

    But I agree with you. I won't be surprised to see them top 8 but pretty much anything higher than that will shock me. There is allot of time left for teams to find themselves in the patch.
  4. InThoX

    InThoX Well-Known Member

    patch and meta is quite good for alliances playstyle. also furion and LD are back in the game, 2 heros at which bulldog excels like no other. i wouldnt underestimate them.
  5. RandomFlamer

    RandomFlamer Well-Known Member

    Not to hate on Alliance but top3 is very much out of their reach. Everybody knows how they play. Hell, take a history lesson and you'll immediately know what they are going to pick and their strategy.

    The thing is, can the pull off an OG? Are they versatile enough to win when Bulldog does not get his comfort heroes, similarly to how crit/miracle got focus banned? I don't think thats the case, he is a horrible initiator, he is also what makes or breaks the lineup as a whole. Focus ban him and you'll destabilize the team greatly, something they won't be able to recover from.
  6. iLag

    iLag Well-Known Member

    also akke is actually an awful player imo same with EGM now probably I wasnt really watching him closely. Their team is on back of s4 hard.

    Also to those saying this is alliance patch and stuff you know chinese teams abuse those heroes really good too right?

    One hero not any of west has abused so far except Liquid who def will cus of Fata is DP whos Super's best hero by far and VG will surely abuse to destroy the tournament.

    Alliance beat LGD, in match that dont matter and bo1. Same with EG if you watched the EG game they basically didnt give a fuck and threw, they had Sumail sand king ffs. They beat secret 2-1. Like I said the 2nd game secret had a heavy throw (or was it 3rd? Idk ) where miserys brood was a non factor, if Misery starts playing good their better and nearly beat them. Liquid I didnt say would beat them and Im a liquid fan. EG i explained doesnt care look at PPds blog he is normally very self critical, same with the immediate tweets afterwards. They have MDL and shangai soon so they are just messing around with the new patch.

    Either way your logic doesn't work because they lost to Spirit... That means their gonna get 2-0ed? Though I think its 50% maybe more chance spirit wins, Goblak has good strategy and CiS teams are best at countering alliances style these days as they are very good early game too. VP is by far a better team they just choked in group stage and its stupid cus it was a no loser bracket tourney otherwise no way VP get knocked out that early.

    Im not gonna type again the teams that are definitely better. Imo they will maybe move up to 7th place this time, their top 8 at best.
  7. wellengang

    wellengang Well-Known Member

    i think top 5 if they play at least as good as now. its a major so eg will try harder ti win
  8. silvercover

    silvercover Moderator

    eh it would still be a challenge, but saying they dont have a chance is going too far.

    people said the same about EG and secret, and they still at least reached top 3 consistently(except for secret during TI5) after their dominance in the patch.

    did you see bulldog's weaver?

    his beastmaster is also pretty good, which also works as a good split pusher in the side.

    also people did this before in the past and it didnt really hinder alliance. in fact, liquid pretty much did it and they still lost(this was the weaver game btw).
  9. RandomFlamer

    RandomFlamer Well-Known Member

    Weaver countered wisp perfectly and they still needed to work for that win, lets not forget that.

    Furthermore Secret's single victory over them was exactly in the same manner I suggested - ban wisp/LD, first pick prophet. You hinder alliance so much by doing this and it showed.
  10. HyP-

    HyP- Well-Known Member

    Just because they were bad before doesn't mean they can't be good again.

    Also asians are overrated as fuck.
  11. PageDownInsert

    PageDownInsert Active Member


    I can say without any resistance that Alliance will win this major or at least take second place (im still OG fangay and i hope they'll win this but cmon... [A] is just too good)

    Here's why.

    Chinese dota is now in slump, in very big one actually. They're practicing more and more but again they aren't enough comfortable with the current meta. Tell me, who thought to pick the Batrider in 6.86? Secret maybe twice, then EG, but they are nothing compared to Alliance and s4's Bat. Alliance before 6.86 also used their signature heroes, but they were owned so hard even with them. Now is the time for [A] heroes, and no one knows them better than they do. What is important is that, the Alliance has the best synergy of all teams in dota 2. And, you can still ban all of Bulldog main heroes (2), there's is still S4-God on Bat, Puck even fcking Krobelus who will reckt your mid.

    VG is not as good as you say about it. Burning is the one who probably hates this meta beccause he can't farm whole game with his AM anymore. Super? He's utterly trash, he was good only on his sniper when hoho-haha was a thing. 3xIce is underperforming really hard either.

    I don't know about EHOME and Newbee but PPD said that LGD will be a disappointment for China, and he was damn right (i like Sylar he is almost as good on LD as Bulldog).

    So, the only opponent for the Alliance is OG.
  12. Spiritah

    Spiritah Well-Known Member

    overall scrubs are piss bad at recognising skill. this thread is an example.

    the offlane change greatly helped alliance because now there is a benefit to playing 3 cores well. before all teams could get 3 farmed cores more easily, now there is far larger restrictions on the offlaner, also the woods is harder to counter. alliance is good at this kind of dota, their over arching strategy is always getting pushed more cores into their lineup without it being punishable.

    also this alliance were never really bad. even with the tons of nerfs after ti3 they still did well just not winning everything but still placed top 3 in many tournaments.

    I think they have a decent shot at winning the major if they keep playing like this.
  13. RandomFlamer

    RandomFlamer Well-Known Member

    Chinese were bad in the last patch because they didn't have meepo/huskar players and generally their strategies were too rigid without too much gimmicky stuff. Why Secret and OG reached the final? One of the biggest reasons has to be Meepo/Huskar.

    Note that LGD is not even the best Chinese team, they are surpassed in skill and potential by Vici/EHOME, and they still did fairly well at Starladder showing great improvement in comparison to Frankfurt. They are really not out of the game and this meta is not that bad for them either. Who else is crazy enough to go Morphling and dominate so much it warranted a ban?
  14. Max_LKC

    Max_LKC Well-Known Member

    This statement is so false that I don't even know how to put it, BurNing versatility now rivals TI5's EG.Fear in carry position, I would say he might even exceed it given how big BurNing's hero pool is and he has been playing a more aggressive style if you actually watch their games. Ice3 has not been underperforming at all, the only one underperforming in VG is Super.

    EDIT: Back on topic, Alliance is looking strong right now there's no denying that. Spiritah sums it up pretty nicely on why is that so.
  15. JJE92

    JJE92 Moderator

    Wtf? They have fucking qualified. The only reason why they would ever be replaced is if they don't manage to get their visas or if they swap out players. But their performance is irrelevant.

    Alliance currently are realistically speaking somewhere around the 3-6th place internationally. They have shown at WCA that they can win against teams that are around 6th-10th placed teams internationally, they have shown at Starladder that they can do this again and also beat one of the very best teams in the world. If they keep up this performance, they will definitely be a solid top 6, if not top 3 team at Majors. Question is if they can.

    Currently, it doesn't look unlikely that they make top 3, but I would still rate the chances of other teams higher.
    • EG is the only team that consistently has top tier performances, so I'd rate their chances for top 3 finishes the highest of any team.
    • OG had a 4th place at Summit (which is still good) after the Major, a 2nd place at The Defense (which is not that good, they lost to Liquid) and they failed SL qualifiers, so their performance hasn't been top notch since and it's still questionable whether the Major was a positive outlier or whether they're really strong. They are probably stronger than they were considered before the Major and very likely a top 6 team, but they don't look like the strongest team.
    • EHome was 5/6th at the Summit, which was definitely not their best performance. In China, however, they won SL qualifiers, Radiant and Dire Cup and Shanghai Open, which were basically all important Chinese only tournaments. Probably still a solid top3 contender.
    • VG placed 3rd in the Summit, which is okayish for their team's strength, in the Radiant and Dire Cup they went 3rd losing to CDEC Youth and EHome, in the Shanghai Cup semifinals they lost to Newbee. They underperformed a bit, but not dramatically, still a solid at least top6 contender.
    • Secret is difficult to judge, they placed badly in all tournaments they participated in (WCA and SL), but it also seemed as if they didn't care at the time of WCA. Probably still a contender, but definitely questionable.

    So, with the current amount of information, I'd rate EG as quite a bit more likely to reach top 3 than any other team (simply because of their consistency), OG, EHome and VG as perhaps a bit more likely to place top 3 on average than Alliance, but only closely right now, Secret as perhaps marginally more likely, perhaps even, hard to judge what they're up to lately.

    With LGD, Liquid or VP I'd disagree.
    • VP had only one single performance that would make them eligible as a top 3 candidate: The Summit. All other tournaments make them more likely a 7/8th or 5/6th placed team.
    • Liquid has a good showing, they could beat EHome and Secret (at SL qualifiers where Secret played horribly, but still), but overall they lost more series (non bo1) against these teams mentioned here than they won. They are definitely able to challenge top6 and they definitely have a chance at top3, but I don't see it as a very likely chance compared to other teams and probably not more likely than Alliance.
    • LGD is similar. LGD lost to VG regularly and could really only defeat Liquid of the other top teams in a series. They definitely have good chances at top 6, I'd rate them higher than Liquid right now, LGD also regularly lost to Alliance, although they came very close.
    LGD definitely comes very close to Alliance, they probably have similar chances at a top 3 right now. I would see Liquid a bit worse off, but still with chances. VP is the most unlikely of these teams mentioned right now and I would definitely rate them lower than Alliance, no doubt.

    Let's see what the future holds. At MarsTV, we will see how well the other top teams aside from Alliance can perform.

    Aside from the fact that this is pure speculation, this analysis also only holds if they get to play against each other directly. Even if VP would defeat Alliance on average in a direct match, Alliance would still on average be more likely to get farther in the tournament than VP simply because Alliance is more likely to beat other teams that VP would on average lose to.
  16. BigBadBossDk

    BigBadBossDk Well-Known Member

    As a fan I expect top 6 with their current form. Top 4 is wishful thinking but not impossible.
  17. ChickWithDick

    ChickWithDick Well-Known Member

    Yeah goodluck OG against [A] who needs to pick IO to win :cat:

    Current [A] is your TI5 EG, they have to ban some heroes or picking it.
    Notail's could get his Lone Druid though, but look at other top team they are forced to ban IO and Chen which means they will have Bulldog powerheroes picked (NP,LD,Weaver), or they could ban two bulldog heroes and picked one reamining but akke and egm could get their best support heroes in the game which means an easy win.

    Not to forget Batrider and Juggernaut aswell.
  18. iLag

    iLag Well-Known Member

    Lol... I can see that you are from SEA so you are an A fanboy... Keep having wishful thinking mate, lol at JUGGERNAUT being ban worthy. Its not like he plays it good he fits their fucking strategy, he plays it at the standard.
  19. r0xo

    r0xo Well-Known Member

    I think while Alliance have improved allot they are not the only one.

    EG and Secret tend to do better at big tournaments (excluding of course the travesty of TI Secret). And with OG, they where able to win Frankfurt with n0tail who had limited experience of mid/carry in Dota. With the experience he picked up he should improve the overall level of the team by quite allot, and take into account that back in Fnatic days they performed better at big tournaments as well. And they have Moon who was also not that experienced at top level play.

    Chinese teams should do better because it is in China, just a small jump in performance but still.

    And even Liquid can do better because now they have even more LAN experience, which is obviously a bit of a weak point for the team.

    But hey, Alliance can definitely raise their game as well.
  20. JJE92

    JJE92 Moderator

    Bulldoge pls xD